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The wader package provides functions to download and generate summaries for the count, nesting, indicator, and weather data from the Wading Bird Project. The Wading Bird Project is a long-term (and ongoing) monitoring site in the Everglades water conservation areas. The raw data files can be found at https://github.com/weecology/evergladeswadingbird. 

The edenR package provides functions to retrieve, process and summarize the EDEN water depth data. The data begin in 1991 and are continuously updated. 

Abstract Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long‐term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts. 

The challenges of monitoring wildlife often limit the scales and intensity of the data that can be collected. New technologies—such as remote sensing using unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs)—can collect information more quickly, over larger areas, and more frequently than is feasible using ground‐based methods. While airborne imaging is increasingly used to produce data on the location and counts of individuals, its ability to produce individual‐based demographic information is less explored. Repeat airborne imagery to generate an imagery time series provides the potential to track individuals over time to collect information beyond one‐off counts, but doing so necessitates automated approaches to handle the resulting high‐frequency large‐spatial scale imagery. We developed an automated time‐series remote sensing approach to identifying wading bird nests in the Everglades ecosystem of Florida, USA to explore the feasibility and challenges of conducting time‐series based remote sensing on mobile animals at large spatial scales. We combine a computer vision model for detecting birds in weekly UAS imagery of colonies with biology‐informed algorithmic rules to generate an automated approach that identifies likely nests. Comparing the performance of these automated approaches to human review of the same imagery shows that our primary approach identifies nests with comparable performance to human review, and that a secondary approach designed to find quick‐fail nests resulted in high false‐positive rates. We also assessed the ability of both human review and our primary algorithm to find ground‐verified nests in UAS imagery and again found comparable performance, with the exception of nests that fail quickly. Our results showed that automating nest detection, a key first step toward estimating nest success, is possible in complex environments like the Everglades and we discuss a number of challenges and possible uses for these types of approaches. 

Wildlife population monitoring over large geographic areas is increasingly feasible due to developments in aerial survey methods coupled with the use of computer vision models for identifying and classifying individual organisms. However, aerial surveys still occur infrequently, and there are often long delays between the acquisition of airborne imagery and its conversion into population monitoring data. Near real‐time monitoring is increasingly important for active management decisions and ecological forecasting. Accomplishing this over large scales requires a combination of airborne imagery, computer vision models to process imagery into information on individual organisms, and automated workflows to ensure that imagery is quickly processed into data following acquisition. Here we present our end‐to‐end workflow for conducting near real‐time monitoring of wading birds in the Everglades, Florida, USA. Imagery is acquired as frequently as weekly using uncrewed aircraft systems (aka drones), processed into orthomosaics (using Agisoft metashape), converted into individual‐level species data using a Retinanet‐50 object detector, post‐processed, archived, and presented on a web‐based visualization platform (using Shiny). The main components of the workflow are automated using Snakemake. The underlying computer vision model provides accurate object detection, species classification, and both total and species‐level counts for five out of six target species (White Ibis, Great Egret, Great Blue Heron, Wood Stork, and Roseate Spoonbill). The model performed poorly for Snowy Egrets due to the small number of labels and difficulty distinguishing them from White Ibis (the most abundant species). By automating the post‐survey processing, data on the populations of these species is available in near real‐time (<1 week from the date of the survey) providing information at the time scales needed for ecological forecasting and active management. 

Ecological Dynamics and Forecasting' is a semester-long course to introduce students to the fundamentals of ecological dynamics and forecasting. This course implements paper-based discussion to introduce students to concepts and ideas and R-based tutorials for hands-on application and training. The course material includes a reading list with prompting questions for discussions, teachers notes for guiding discussions, lecture notes for live coding demonstrations, and video presentations of all R tutorials. This course material can be used either as self-directed learning or as all or part of a college or university course. Individual learners have access to all of the necessary material - including discussion questions and instructor notes - on the website. The course focuses on papers with an open-access or free-to-read version where possible, though some materials still rely on access to closed-access papers. The course is structured around two sessions per week, with most weeks consisting of a one hour paper discussion session and a 1-2 hour session focused on applications in R. R tutorials use publicly available ecological datasets to provide realistic applications. Because the material is organized around content themes, instructors can modify and remix materials based on their course goals and student levels of background knowledge. These course materials have been taught for several years at the authors’ university and have also generated significant online engagement with course videos tens of thousands of times. 

The ecology of forest ecosystems depends on the composition of trees. Capturing fine-grained information on individual trees at broad scales provides a unique perspective on forest ecosystems, forest restoration, and responses to disturbance. Individual tree data at wide extents promises to increase the scale of forest analysis, biogeographic research, and ecosystem monitoring without losing details on individual species composition and abundance. Computer vision using deep neural networks can convert raw sensor data into predictions of individual canopy tree species through labeled data collected by field researchers. Using over 40,000 individual tree stems as training data, we create landscape-level species predictions for over 100 million individual trees across 24 sites in the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Using hierarchical multi-temporal models fine-tuned for each geographic area, we produce open-source data available as 1 km²shapefiles with individual tree species prediction, as well as crown location, crown area, and height of 81 canopy tree species. Site-specific models had an average performance of 79% accuracy covering an average of 6 species per site, ranging from 3 to 15 species per site. All predictions are openly archived and have been uploaded to Google Earth Engine to benefit the ecology community and overlay with other remote sensing assets. We outline the potential utility and limitations of these data in ecology and computer vision research, as well as strategies for improving predictions using targeted data sampling. 

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships. 

Abstract Measuring forest biodiversity using terrestrial surveys is expensive and can only capture common species abundance in large heterogeneous landscapes. In contrast, combining airborne imagery with computer vision can generate individual tree data at the scales of hundreds of thousands of trees. To train computer vision models, ground‐based species labels are combined with airborne reflectance data. Due to the difficulty of finding rare species in a large landscape, many classification models only include the most abundant species, leading to biased predictions at broad scales. For example, if only common species are used to train the model, this assumes that these samples are representative across the entire landscape. Extending classification models to include rare species requires targeted data collection and algorithmic improvements to overcome large data imbalances between dominant and rare taxa. We use a targeted sampling workflow to the Ordway Swisher Biological Station within the US National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where traditional forestry plots had identified six canopy tree species with more than 10 individuals at the site. Combining iterative model development with rare species sampling, we extend a training dataset to include 14 species. Using a multi‐temporal hierarchical model, we demonstrate the ability to include species predicted at <1% frequency in landscape without losing performance on the dominant species. The final model has over 75% accuracy for 14 species with improved rare species classification compared to 61% accuracy of a baseline deep learning model. After filtering out dead trees, we generate landscape species maps of individual crowns for over 670 000 individual trees. We find distinct patches of forest composed of rarer species at the full‐site scale, highlighting the importance of capturing species diversity in training data. We estimate the relative abundance of 14 species within the landscape and provide three measures of uncertainty to generate a range of counts for each species. For example, we estimate that the dominant species, Pinus palustris accounts for c. 28% of predicted stems, with models predicting a range of counts between 160 000 and 210 000 individuals. These maps provide the first estimates of canopy tree diversity within a NEON site to include rare species and provide a blueprint for capturing tree diversity using airborne computer vision at broad scales.